Started @ New York Mets (6W-1L, 1.83 ERA)

GOOD NEWS: Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters Wednesday — a key step in his rehab. If the live BP goes well, a rehab assignment could follow within 7-10 days. Realistic return to the Reds' rotation: mid-to-late June. Hold on IL if you have him.

3 blown saves and 6 HRs allowed in his last 23 batters since May 5. The Reds' bullpen is full chaos — Pierce Johnson and Graham Ashcraft are both ahead of Santillan in the leverage hierarchy. Fade in standard formats.

The breakout has Statcast support: swing speed is up 3 mph, he's driving balls to the right parts of the field, and his BB:K ratio flipped. The .755 SLG will regress, but managers pointing to that as a reason to wait are missing the point — the underlying changes are real. 15 straight starts in the lineup. Add now.

Lumbar bulging disc, retroactive to May 21. Hayes' back has been a recurring problem that also cost him time at the end of 2025. The Reds placed him on the IL while activating Eugenio Suárez. A rehab assignment is likely before reinstatement, pushing realistic return to mid-June.

Started @ Philadelphia Phillies (5W-1L, 1.87 ERA)

Just dropped 6 RBI on the Nationals in a multi-HR game. The free-agent signing has finally found his swing in Cincinnati — back-to-back multi-HR nights and a sustainable walk-rate / strikeout-rate combo. Top-30 OF rest of season ceiling. Add aggressively before this hits the news cycle.

HRs in four consecutive appearances; velocity 2 mph below last year. The Reds' bullpen meltdown continues. Graham Ashcraft is leveraged ahead of him for saves. Fade in standard formats.

Started vs Washington Nationals (4W-1L, 2.11 ERA)

NEW: 15-day IL with right shoulder pain. Lowder was 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA but the underlying metrics had been improving (better xFIP than ERA). Shoulder pain in a young arm warrants careful management — expect 4-6 weeks at minimum. The Reds rotation (Burns/Lodolo/Lowder) is increasingly thin.

Pitcher List's top hitter add. Acquired by Cincinnati from Miami over the winter, the 30-year-old has earned his way into the OF rotation behind Friedl/Marte with 1 HR, 7 walks, 10 R, and an SB over his last 24 PA. Add in 14+ team leagues; pure flier in 12-team but the playing time is real and the underlying contact metrics back the surface stats.

NEW: 15-day IL retroactive to May 9 with right shoulder discomfort. MRI shows no structural damage; the Reds are being precautionary. Lowder had been pitching to a 5.40 ERA. Chase Petty likely fills the rotation spot. With Williamson on 60-day IL and Hunter Greene still recovering, the Reds rotation is thin.

Started vs Houston Astros (3W-1L, 2.20 ERA)

The full crisis. -1.87 WPA over the last 7 days, 8 meltdowns on the year, 7-game losing streak. Tony Santillan is the nominal closer but the Reds aren't winning anything close. Avoid every Reds reliever in standard formats.

NEW: Requires an MRI after shoulder discomfort in his most recent start (May 7 vs. CHC). The Reds had been counting on him as a rotation anchor with Lodolo just returning and Williamson on the 60-day. Lowder was 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA but had been pitching better recently.

Inherits the Reds' 9th with Pagán out 4-8 weeks. Graham Ashcraft is a co-closer threat — recently blew a save which created some uncertainty. Santillan has the experience edge (7 saves last season). Hold and monitor usage; Ashcraft is the speculative second add.

NEW: 15-day IL with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. FanGraphs Roto Riteup notes the timeline is 4-8 weeks. Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft are the most likely save sources in his absence — Santillan has the experience edge (7 saves last season).

Pitcher List flagged Bleday as a top deep-league flier — 1.247 OPS over his last 29 PA with elite exit velocity. The Reds offense has been clicking, and Bleday's everyday role is locked. Add in 14+ team mixed; 12-team owners can wait one more week to see if the contact quality holds.

Pagán's hamstring is a 4-8 week absence — Santillan inherits the Reds' 9th. He had 7 saves last year and a 27% K-rate this year. Graham Ashcraft is a co-closer threat (just earned his first career save), but Santillan is the priority add.

Pagán's leash is officially gone (3 blown saves, 56.8% hard-hit, 4.72 xERA). Santillan is the most likely beneficiary of a role flip. Drop Pagán in 12-team; speculate-add Santillan in deep formats.

Justin Mason flagged Pagán's collapse as the next saves role to flip — 6.43 ERA, 3 blown saves, and the leash is gone. Tony Santillan is the most likely beneficiary in Cincinnati. Drop Pagán in 12-team formats; speculate-add Santillan in deep saves leagues.

OBP 0.344 → .415 (Δ +0.071)

Started @ Pittsburgh Pirates (3W-1L, 2.65 ERA)

OBP 0.344 → .423 (Δ +0.079)

Pitcher List flagged Lowe as a top deep-league add at just 4% ownership. He's swinging the bat better in his second month with the Reds, and Great American Ball Park is a plus park for the lefty pull stroke. Add in 14+ team leagues; CI streamer in 12-team.