Kansas City Royals left-hander Cole Ragans had UCL repair surgery on his left elbow Wednesday, with a recovery timeline of at least 12 months — putting him out until midseason 2027 at the earliest. The 28-year-old had been one of the most coveted trade deadline arms in the AL, a storyline that is now entirely closed. The Royals are targeting a return around the 2027 All-Star break as the best-case scenario.
Ryan Helsley was placed on the 15-day IL (retroactive to June 30) after experiencing right elbow discomfort while warming in the Orioles' bullpen on July 1 — his second elbow IL stint of the season. He returned from the first stint (May 1–June 16) to post a 7.71 ERA in five outings, then went back down. Rookie right-hander Anthony Nunez was recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to fill the bullpen vacancy.
Connelly Early was placed on the 15-day IL after exiting a July 1 start against Washington with left elbow discomfort. An MRI revealed posterior elbow inflammation with no structural damage — Early said he's "personally not too concerned." He'll be eligible to return around the All-Star break, with Jake Bennett the likely rotation replacement.
Pittsburgh rookie Esmerlyn Valdez smashed a two-run homer against the Phillies on July 2 for his fourth home run in four consecutive games, becoming only the third Pirate in franchise history to accomplish the feat (Dick Stuart, Garrett Jones). He's batting .380 with a 1.368 OPS since his second callup on June 11, and he's just the sixth player in MLB history to have a 4+ game homer streak in his first 16 MLB games.
Who's Hot This Week
The Red Sox rookie has a 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the surface, but his underlying metrics tell a better story: 2.64 xERA (94th percentile), 55.2% ground-ball rate (94th percentile), and a 5.4% walk rate. With Connelly Early now on the IL, Bennett steps into a clear rotation spot with no competition, and Fenway's second half is historically pitcher-friendly once the summer heat sets in. The strikeout rate (19.4%) is below average and limits his ceiling in K-heavy formats, but in ratio leagues he's significantly underpriced at 30% ownership. Add before the regression pushes his ERA toward those underlying numbers.
Worth Reading
Zinkie's holiday weekend pickup guide leads with Valdez and covers pitcher streamers Troy Melton, Cade Cavalli, and Jake Bennett alongside Dalton Rushing as the top hitter add. A quick read that aligns with this issue's picks and gives additional matchup context if you need to sell your league-mates on an add.
NBC Sports makes the underlying-data case for Cavalli (highest BABIP allowed among non-Rockies starters — regression coming) and Seymour (changeup metrics alone justify the add). A deeper pitching dive than most waiver articles, especially useful if you play in a format that rewards ERA and WHIP.
Pitcher List's daily waiver analysis goes deep on the streaming side, flagging several arms in the 15–25% ownership range with favorable Week 15 matchups. If you need a second opinion on a specific start this week and can't find the answer in this issue, this is your next stop.
Helsley experienced right elbow discomfort while warming up in the Orioles' bullpen on July 1 and did not enter the game. He was placed on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 30 — his second elbow IL stint of 2026, following his first from May 1 through June 16. He returned from that first stint to post a 7.71 ERA over five outings before going back down, which is a significant red flag about durability. Anthony Nunez (RHP) was recalled from Triple-A Norfolk as the corresponding move.
Early exited a July 1 start against the Nationals after four scoreless innings with left elbow discomfort. An MRI revealed posterior elbow inflammation with no structural damage; Early himself called it minimally concerning. He is eligible to return around the All-Star break, making this a probable minimum-stay situation. Jake Bennett is the rotation replacement and has performed well in his own right.
Ragans underwent UCL repair surgery on his left elbow on July 2, with a minimum 12-month recovery timeline. He is expected back around the 2027 All-Star break at the earliest, effectively ending his 2026 season and removing him from trade deadline consideration entirely. No rotation replacement has been announced. The Royals were reportedly packaging Ragans as the centerpiece of multiple potential deals before the injury surfaced.
Acuña strained his left hamstring on June 9 — his second hamstring injury of the 2026 season, the same spot as the first. Manager Walt Weiss has said Acuña is a "long way" from returning and called it a long shot for him to be back before the All-Star break, citing extra caution given the repeat nature of the strain. He's cleared full baseball activities but has not been cleared for game action. No firm return date has been set.
Athlon evaluated every qualified MLB starter by a two-part test: did the pitcher improve both swinging-strike rate and K-BB% from April to May, and did he hold both gains through June? Of 162 pitchers examined, only one cleared both bars in both months — Boston Red Sox veteran Sonny Gray. Gray carries a 2.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 83.2 innings through June, with a wOBA against of .292 and xwOBA of .296, both in the 95th percentile on Baseball Savant. His improvement wasn't incremental; the data shows a pitcher who genuinely changed something and made it stick.
The key change was a documented arsenal shift. Gray's cutter usage jumped from 12.6% to 20.7% of pitches between 2025 and 2026, and the pitch is working: its wOBA against dropped from .389 to .281. His sweeper has been even more dominant — a .114 wOBA against with a 40% swinging-strike rate — effectively an elite swing-and-miss pitch that opposing lineups haven't found an answer for. The combination turned a serviceable mid-rotation arm into one of the most efficient starters in baseball.
The remaining narrative risk is the trade deadline. Gray is in the final year of his contract with Boston, and if the Red Sox fall out of playoff contention, he becomes one of the most coveted deadline chips in the game. A move to a true contender would add win support to an already elite underlying profile. For fantasy managers: he's a must-start across all formats, and his ownership may still trail where it should be given the kind of independently verified, two-month sustained breakout that Athlon's methodology is specifically designed to detect.
The July 1 Leverage Ledger highlighted Josh Hader's dominance for Houston (12 June appearances, 8 converted saves, 0.538 WHIP with 21 K in 13 IP) while flagging multiple volatile save situations heading into the holiday weekend. The Orioles situation had already emerged as the week's most urgent monitor — Helsley's elbow soreness while warming up raised flags before Friday's IL confirmation. The Ledger also noted Oakland and Arizona as active watch situations.
Read the full Ledger →| Closer | Team | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles Committee | BAL | 🔴 Committee | With Helsley back on the IL for the second time, the Orioles bullpen enters the holiday weekend with no designated closer. Yennier Cano, Rico Garcia, Andrew Kittredge, Grant Wolfram, and newly recalled Anthony Nunez will handle save situations by matchup. Do not spend roster space on any individual Orioles arm — stream save opportunities only when Baltimore is a clear favorite in a given game. |
| Caleb Kilian | SF | 🟡 Watch | The Giants formally named Kilian their closer in late June. He's converted 4 of 5 save opportunities with a 3.34 ERA and 9.7 K/9 across 28 appearances, but the walk rate remains elevated. Manager Tony Vitello has committed to Kilian for the ninth inning while using Keaton Winn and Erik Miller in earlier high-leverage spots. Add in 14+ team leagues before the role fully cements — the erratic command keeps it from being a full green light, but the job is clearly his to lose. |
| Brandyn Garcia | ARI | 🟡 Watch | Paul Sewald continues to struggle and Garcia has posted a six-game scoreless streak with a save and three holds. The Diamondbacks haven't made a formal closer announcement, but ninth-inning usage is clearly shifting Garcia's way. Add in 14+ team leagues before the announcement comes — one more Sewald blown save likely triggers an immediate role handoff. |
Official MLB highlights from the Blue Jays at Mariners game on July 3, featuring all top plays, key at-bats, and notable pitching moments from the afternoon matchup in Seattle — a preview of the July 4 rematch with Shane Bieber and Logan Gilbert.
Joe Pisapia and Chris Welsh break down four must-add pitching streamers for Week 15 — including arms in the 15–30% ownership range with soft upcoming matchups — with specific ownership percentages and rationale for each.
Pisapia and Welsh cover the top hitter adds for the 4th of July weekend — Esmerlyn Valdez, Dalton Rushing, and several more — with exit velocity data, ownership breakdowns, and tiered add recommendations by league size.
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